POPULATION:The late Al Bartlett had a lot to say about the exponential function (see earlier post) and how human population growth exasperated it even more with endless environmental insults. Whichever type of future we collectively choose – agrarian or highly technological, or even a unique combination – we will have to deal with human population (HPG) as one of our priorities. Even a low human growth rate of 1.1% is still pushing the large population numbers even larger. This is the kicker of exponential growth – it starts slow, but even with small growth rates large numbers become exceedingly very quickly. We have to somehow curb HPG, but here is the Catch-22. Everything that is good for society and people merely encourages HPG. In his video, Bartlett shows what positive and actions do for HPG.
Positive Actions that increase Human Population
- Procreation and no birth control
- Motherhood
- Large Families
- Immigration
- Medicine
- Public Health
- Sanitation
- Peace
- Law & order
- Scientific and Organic Agriculture
- Accident Prevention
- Clear Air & Water
- Ignorance of the problem
Negative Actions that Decrease Population
- Abstention
- Contraception/Abortion
- Small Families (enforced?)
- Stopping Country Immigration (but all are still on the planet)
- Disease
- War
- Murder/Violence
- Famine
- Accidents
- Pollution and Artificial Toxics
These are interesting tables of options, BUT, what do we educate and campaign for??? Everything that we consider good raises population, while everything we consider negative helps resolve the problem and decreases population. So, of course we need education, but what do we focus on? No one wants to deal with the unthinkable and to pick from the negative list. So, how do we decrease HPG in a fair and humane way? And how do we help the LDCs raise their SOL while keeping their QOL and that of the MDCs at a reasonable level. Not a simple issue. In my SL text I give the three major physical root causes of unsustainable living as overpopulation, overconsumption, and fossil fuel dependence. Even if we somehow manage to solve the last two, overpopulation will still drive us over the edge eventually.
What is the level of Human Population that is good for sustainable living, while allowing a good Standard of Living (SOL) that permits a high Quality of Life (QOL). The big question is how will the human population decrease? There is the observation that as countries become more affluent the population naturally drops as women gain independence and can make choices for themselves rather than having some patriarchal system subjugate them into ‘motherhood.’ If there is one thing that makes a difference, it is that educating women makes a difference.
When we look at a chart of the Demographic Transition (https://populationeducation.org/what-demographic-transition-model/) the longer that a country’s population spends in phases 2 and 3 the higher the population can climb before it stabilizes and finally begins to decline in phase 5. The MDCs spent some 200+ years moving through phases 1-5. If we project this for today’s LDCs then the population will soar before it declines. We need to have the LDCs make this transition from 1-4 in ten years. How can this occur is a question I get a lot. The answer lies in our priorities as a global population. Lester Brown (World Watch Institute) has looked at this problem and concluded it is a priority issue as well. (I’m having keyboard malfunctions so….). Tbc…..
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