As we move into a new economic future, we will not leave manufacturing behind for some mythical utopian agrarian society. We still need ‘stuff’ for a good techno-sustainable standard of living (SOL), but the focus will be on a much broader quality of life (QOL) and not simply SOL. As will become obvious in Item 4, we will become more agrarian, but nothing like humanity has been for most of the past several millennia. For all of human history we have been restricted by the EROI (Energy Return on Investment) – (The ratio of the amount of usable energy (the exergy) delivered from a particular energy resource to the amount of exergy used to obtain that energy resource.) A fuel/energy source is viable when the EROI ratio of at least 3:1. The conversion of mechanical energy to supplant human or animal power was the first real technology that used simple wind sails or water wheels to harness the energy of flowing water and wind. Low investment but with low level energy yield, yet acceptable EROI.
The rapid industrialization and urbanization that happened in the last century was completely different from what was ‘normal’ for those past millennia, as new dense energy supplies (fossil fuels with high EROI – 40:1 originally, but falling as extraction gets harder) opened up new technological options for making stuff. It was so new that it took us by surprise. Sadly, what we measured as success was completely at odds with living successfully well on the planet.
The economic models developed during the Medieval Renaissance that crystalized into the dystopian market economic system we know today were a culmination of several factors – like ignoring EROI (since we didn’t know about the laws of thermodynamics until the 1800’s (Joule’s discovery of 1st law) and especially the 2nd law (Clausius, 1850). It seemed we had so much new (and apparently endless) energy that we went rampant in technological advancements. Also, among factors for our new economic system was crass materialism and an uber-consumptive lifestyle that was divorced from the reality of living on a resource finite planet. And, being spiritually bankrupt, we also failed to consider the rest of the life in our planetary ecology, and especially our role within its cycles.
“The world has enough for everyone’s need, but not enough for everyone’s greed” Mahatma Gandhi.
As an example of human thinking, if you have ever hiked or backpacked in the wild, you need to carry your own food (we’ll forget being able to hunt as that is not an option in most cases anymore). Let’s imagine you have a whole stash of high energy bars and dehydrated food in your pack. Unless you are highly disciplined, you tend to be cavalier on eating food bars, because you have so many. As your stash dwindles, if you are sensible, you start to ration yourself to avoid getting too hungry for the remainder of the trip.
I once went for a month to the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in NE Alaska. There were seven of us carrying all our shared food (main meals – breakfast and dinner) and then our own food for lunch and snacks. Knowing how far and how long we had to go as we travelled through and over the Romanzof Mountains I had calculated the calories for such an arduous trip. I was disciplined. Yet, even then, I had miscalculated how much energy I would be burning carrying a very heavy pack (started out 85 lbs./38 Kgs) in wild terrain (most of it dehydrated food – still weighs a lot). My food lasted exactly to the last day, but when we arrived in the village of Katovik for our flight out, I and the rest of my group were all hungry and much leaner than when we set out.
What has this got to with metrics you say. That month long trip was calculated on assumptions of energy to be used versus energy to be carried – quite simple – and yet we still miscalculated. Now look at how we live in the developed world, with its many assumptions, and even worse, its many deliberate omissions from the calculations and its doesn’t take an Einstein to recognize how wrong we have been for the past few centuries when it comes to resources needed versus costs incurred. With fewer people and apparently endless resources we acted as if we would never run out, and that the only real metric of consequence would be monetary profit. SOL was an assumption that seemed true (see earlier posts 1 and 2) because fossil fuel energy allowed us to create more goods and services, thereby creating profit for more and more industrial manufacturers, leading to a major assumption that standard of living was synonymous with quality of life.
For a few short decades of the Twentieth century, because of the rise of SOL, these faulty assumptions were ignored. When you have very little and then suddenly have a lot more stuff, it’s a bit like the food bars at the start of a backpack trip. Hence the attitude, “there’s more where they came from.” And there weren’t as many people in the Twentieth century. Let’s think about that; in 1920 there were 1.7 billion, of which perhaps 20% were in developed countries with a good SOL. In 2020, we reach 8 billion people with an even higher SOL, of which 20% are in developed countries. And our resource use has grown exponentially throughout the last century as less-developed countries claim their time at the feeding-trough of market capitalism. The late Al Bartlett had some poignant things to say about ignoring the exponential problem (see link).
I hope I made my point already; change is coming whether we like it or not, and governmental systems along with the hierarchy that benefit from the global market economy are fixated on profits and money generation, measured primarily by GDP and the stock-market – neither of which informs us, the masses, about the actual quality of our lives.
A couple of quotes now bring me to the central point of item 3, I have said many times measuring what is the only important set of metrics that can lead to a sustainable future: “Vital to quality of life is the ability to work together, learn from each other, and help each other grow” Stephen Covey, and “If standard of living is your major objective, quality of life almost never improves, but if quality of life is your number one objective, your standard of living almost always improves” Zig Ziglar.
Although this relates to Item 5 – energy, the metric associated with it is important for now. We need to start measuring ‘Emergy’ (see my post that explains this more, and wiki). Since energy is the crucial component that created our modern world, and if ignored in favor of profits only, will be the reason for its fall, I am amazed that we pay absolutely no attention to it, other than drill, baby drill” to use it faster!
There are three major basics that need to be part of the new metrics for a sustainable future. Measuring energy (Emergy) to keep track of what we use, how we use it, and how we keep it available. Quality of Life as the principal factor of how well socio-cultural systems are working for ALL of us and life globally. And finally, how we maintain a good SOL with technology and manufacturing systems that benefit us that are incentivized to keep producing sustainable quality goods and services that are actually needed for a good SOL. You’ll note that I don’t include economics in this short list, but I will link the new economics of the last four posts to the new metrics as we go along.
Quite a bit to think about this week. So, To Be Continued ………………
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