The one thing that most people are noticing during these challenging times is how change is coming. Yet, most people are fearful of large changes, since the unknown is a fearful place for so many and the illusion of the status quo seems more comforting. It’s the reason so many will stay in a rut rather than break out and create a future that is better. This fear of change is part of the conditioning to make us accept what we don’t like over what we imaginatively fear could be worse. Too often we are manipulated into a situation by thinking we have choice when we really don’t. It’s how the hierarchical system controls us. A metaphor of this is when I work with little children to get them to comply with what I need them to do, I give them at least two options. One they definitely would not like and the other framed on what I needed them to do that was more acceptable to them.
Choices are part of life, yet so many defer their choices fearing that they may make a wrong choice. So, they make a choice by not choosing, and thereby continue the status quo, which while not something they would choose is something they know – they have certainty about it. I have observed over decades is how people stick in the rut because it offers a sense of ‘certainty’ to avoid making a decision about creating change. In essence, most people want to be given a better future so that they don’t have to decide, thus being able to blame some others if things for whatever reason turn out the way they feared might happen. But, if you can accept that change, whatever it turns out to be, then any outcome is always better than the deteriorating situation in the rut, and the only way a positive future is possible.
A way we are held back from creating a better future is by a principle called by ‘Psychological Certainty,’ which is what we believe will happen (usually erroneously) regardless of anything else going on. It is a strange factor that people adhere to in order to avoid stress from the fear of uncertainty. Uncertainty is stressful in the same way that the unconscious in us creates anger and fear – it’s a conditioned reaction. To control these feeling and return to a state of relaxation, we try to force-fit certainty into our lives even when we see it leading us down the road to perdition.
We strive for certainty through our core beliefs that create opinions that shape our convictions about what is true and false (our conditioning). It is easier to deal with the complexities of the world when information fits our beliefs (confirmation bias). The mass media and educational systems excel at doing that for us. Psychologist, Steven Stosny, makes the point that “certainty is an emotional state, not an intellectual one. To feel certain, the brain must filter out more information than it processes.” The brain does this through confirmation bias, mental focus, and using social media that while it can fuel ‘certainty,’ it precludes people from considering complexity. And complexity is the real world we live within and requires critical thinking. As Stosny states, “Considering evidence against one’s assumptions and opinions can illuminate blind spots and help people escape certainty.”
When I read various ‘opinions’ about many environmental issues, and especially the hot topic issues that are especially nuanced and complex, the more I notice how certain some people are of their assertions! It’s is almost pathological how some people make definitive assertions that maintain (almost narcissistically) their rigid beliefs and opinions. And of course, they then pathologically categorize any opposing opinions as wrong, even perceiving these others as being disloyal and deserving punishment for non-compliance to their certain views. (Think about Covid as a prime example.)
As I said earlier, psychological certainty is about emotions, and deeply rooted in conditioned beliefs. Research on the topic shows that while positive emotions of happiness and contentment can occur when certainty is present (a reason that people want certainty in their lives), negative emotions such as anger, disgust, and even rage and hatred can occur when uncertainty arises. When I talked at conferences about ecological complexity, I have had people come up to me afterwards to complain that they didn’t want to think about things that way.
I once had a student come to my office to complain that she knew I was trying to make her think. She told me she was in college just to get a degree in order to get a better job. I wish she was an isolated example, but too many people walk through life with certainty blinders on and have no desire to face reality and its complexities. This is major barrier to becoming truly sustainable because the more certain people feel, the more vulnerable they are seeing only what supports their beliefs, all the while ignoring and discounting any contradictory evidence they might accidently see. It also explains the painful polarization we see across the board as differing factions either think critically or only focus on perceived certainty. In the Temple of Apollo at Delphi, 2500 years ago, Greek sages etched in stone, a statement that translates as, “Surety brings ruin.”
Surety makes people defend the status quo, often with unbridled passion. It helps people focus on highly complex issues and make them simplified problems with simple solutions. Hence the problem with using social media and sound bite reports as sources of confirmation bias. It’s bad enough the algorithms polarize us, but certainty precludes us having extensive discussions that help us learn and accept uncertainty as a positive and not something to be feared.
As Stosny says, “What you can’t put in a tweet must be wrong or irrelevant…The algorithms skillfully implemented in social media and search engines provide validation for any opinion on anything. The hunger for validation itself reveals the paradox of certainty. The more certain many people feel, the more validation they seem to require. Validation seems necessary when we’re insecure about our beliefs, opinions, and prejudices. Self-doubt is typically covered up with anger and attempts to devalue others…If you disagree with those who feel certain, you’re immoral, unintelligent, unpatriotic, crazy, sexist, racist, hate-mongering, or simply personality-disordered.
When I talk about a sustainable future, it is one in which we all feel part of a positive community that thrives and grows. It is all part of basic human needs. In a sustainable future we will have sovereignty and feel significant, valued, and unique. Being part of a true community will give us affection, connection, and deep affiliation to everything around us. We will feel personal growth (self-actualization) and purpose as we contribute in meaningful ways to helping and collaborating with others. The need for variety is also a major need we all have, but curiously they entails us doing things that excite us through entertainment and stimulation that can only come through uncertainty!
Now that is a Catch-22, we need both uncertainty and certainty in our lives. Too much uncertainty can be discomforting, yet too much certainty brings boredom, stagnation, and compliance to systems that limit and control us. So how do we find the balance that gives us an exciting future where we thrive? The illusionary certainty of the current status quo is rapidly dissolving. Uncertainty about the future is on us now. We can consciously choose a future that offers hope and sovereignty or unconsciously accept a future where we decline and become slaves to a dispassionate system that controls us.
All our opinions have massive blind spots of assumptions and confirmation bias within them. As I have said too often in this blog, to become critical and mindful thinkers and look at our beliefs that create our many opinions. If you devalue or label others for any reasons whatsoever then you are creating separation and division. This is a natural and largely unconscious part of information processing (see my earlier post). What evidence do you use to create your opinions? By seeing others as having worth and respect, just as you strive to have this, we would open the door to being good human beings practicing kindness. It’s OK to disagree, but problematic to be so certain of your position that you negate any other position without even considering other positions.
We need to embrace that life is inherently uncertain, it’s why we strive to control it as much as possible, but if we can tolerate it, we learn to be better intellectually and to connect to one another emotionally and compassionately. We don’t feel alone in what we do but can thrive as a community when we use uncertainty to improve our thinking and what we choose and accept. Being certain can often just be a fear based mask for using, “dogma, superstition, delusions, drugs, ego, perfectionism, anger, and attempts to control what other people think, say, and do.”
As Stosny states, “Life can be hard for the certain — reality simply won’t cooperate with their view of it. Life is more interesting and valuable for those who embrace its inherent uncertainty.” While we always cope with uncertainty, doing so through an implicit recognition that it gives value and meaning to life helps us understand and connect with each other and the complexities of life. We can strive for a largely uncertain future by choosing to embrace it mindfully and together with the knowledge that we share and discuss. Life is an ever-changing, never-completed picture of reality that we all see differently, but accepting uncertainty drives us to piece it together with empathy and compassion.
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